Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emmen win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 30.65% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emmen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.52%) and 2-0 (6.6%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.