Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 74.25%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 11.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.55%) and 3-1 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Jong Ajax win it was 1-2 (3.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.