Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 71.32%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for VVV-Venlo had a probability of 12.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 3-1 (8.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.92%), while for a VVV-Venlo win it was 1-2 (3.63%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.