Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 58.76%. A win for Jong PSV had a probability of 22.28% and a draw had a probability of 19%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.12%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Jong PSV win was 1-2 (5.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.