Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 40.3%. A win for Girona had a probability of 33.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (8.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Valencia would win this match.