Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 49.17%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 26.65% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.17%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.