Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Queens Park Rangers had a probability of 28.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Queens Park Rangers win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.