Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Rotterdam win with a probability of 53.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 23.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Rotterdam win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (8.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sparta Rotterdam would win this match.