Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 58.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Serbia had a probability of 18.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.1%), while for a Serbia win it was 0-1 (6.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.