Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 40.32%. A win for Legia Warsaw had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Legia Warsaw win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.