Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Molde win with a probability of 45.08%. A win for Jagiellonia Bialystok had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Molde win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Jagiellonia Bialystok win was 1-0 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.