Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Tucuman win with a probability of 52.85%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Independiente Rivadavia had a probability of 19.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Tucuman win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.53%) and 2-1 (8.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%), while for a Independiente Rivadavia win it was 0-1 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Tucuman would win this match.