Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 50.14%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 25.87% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.61%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.