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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Morecambe | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 31.29% | 27.05% | 41.66% |
| Both teams to score 49.78% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.64% | 55.36% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.43% | 76.57% |
| Morecambe Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.46% | 32.54% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.93% | 69.07% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.8% | 26.2% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.7% | 61.3% |
| Score Analysis |
| Morecambe | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 9.57% 2-1 @ 7.2% 2-0 @ 5.37% 3-1 @ 2.69% 3-0 @ 2.01% 3-2 @ 1.8% Other @ 2.64% Total : 31.29% | 1-1 @ 12.82% 0-0 @ 8.53% 2-2 @ 4.82% Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.05% | 0-1 @ 11.42% 1-2 @ 8.59% 0-2 @ 7.65% 1-3 @ 3.83% 0-3 @ 3.41% 2-3 @ 2.15% 1-4 @ 1.28% 0-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.18% Total : 41.66% |