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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 47.04%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 25.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.19%) and 1-2 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Harrogate Town win it was 1-0 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 25.95% | 27.01% | 47.04% |
| Both teams to score 46.82% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.35% | 57.65% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.59% | 78.41% |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.05% | 37.95% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.28% | 74.72% |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.47% | 24.53% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.99% | 59.01% |
| Score Analysis |
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 9.02% 2-1 @ 6.14% 2-0 @ 4.37% 3-1 @ 1.98% 3-0 @ 1.41% 3-2 @ 1.39% Other @ 1.63% Total : 25.95% | 1-1 @ 12.67% 0-0 @ 9.31% 2-2 @ 4.31% Other @ 0.71% Total : 27.01% | 0-1 @ 13.08% 0-2 @ 9.19% 1-2 @ 8.91% 0-3 @ 4.31% 1-3 @ 4.17% 2-3 @ 2.02% 0-4 @ 1.51% 1-4 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.38% Total : 47.03% |