Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Barnsley had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.01%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Barnsley win was 1-2 (7.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.