Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 57.18%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 21.63% and a draw had a probability of 21.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.43%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-2 (5.64%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.