Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 62.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 17.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.03%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.