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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 62.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 17.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.03%) and 1-2 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.71%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (4.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Oxford United |
| 17.01% | 20.62% | 62.38% |
| Both teams to score 54% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.04% | 41.96% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.64% | 64.36% |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.99% | 38.02% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.22% | 74.78% |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.12% | 12.89% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.71% | 39.29% |
| Score Analysis |
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Oxford United |
| 1-0 @ 4.74% 2-1 @ 4.7% 2-0 @ 2.29% 3-2 @ 1.55% 3-1 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.22% Total : 17.01% | 1-1 @ 9.71% 0-0 @ 4.9% 2-2 @ 4.81% 3-3 @ 1.06% Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.62% | 0-2 @ 10.28% 0-1 @ 10.03% 1-2 @ 9.95% 0-3 @ 7.02% 1-3 @ 6.79% 0-4 @ 3.6% 1-4 @ 3.48% 2-3 @ 3.29% 2-4 @ 1.68% 0-5 @ 1.47% 1-5 @ 1.43% Other @ 3.34% Total : 62.36% |