Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 50.5%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 25.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.62%) and 0-2 (8.58%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.