Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 64.1%. A draw had a probability of 20.95% and a win for Drogheda United had a probability of 14.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.46%) and 2-1 (10.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%) , while for a Drogheda United win it was 0-1 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.