Following gut-wrenching setbacks last time out, both Lazio and their visitors AC Milan meet on Monday in need of points to fulfil their ambitions of European football for next season.
The hosts are clinging onto a top-six place ahead of city rivals Roma, while the Rossoneri come to the capital with securing a long-awaited Champions League return upmost in mind.
Match preview
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Only Atalanta's inability to beat Roma saved a struggling Milan from slipping out of Serie A's top two for the first time in months last week, after they let slip a lead provided by Hakan Calhanoglu to lose 2-1 against Sassuolo at San Siro.
Yet another setback on home soil came about as, after surging forward in the final 20 minutes, their Emilian visitors were ultimately rewarded when Giacomo Raspadori netted from close range, before adding a second in the 83rd minute to end Milan's distant title hopes once and for all.
In a week when the Rossoneri have been distracted by the actions of their errant owners, the defeat marked a new low in a troubling period for Stefano Pioli's unravelling side.
Ten points behind old foes Inter ahead of the league's 33rd round, they were also just one above both Atalanta and Juventus heading into the weekend, with their expected return to the European elite - earned by merit rather than shady boardroom deals - now in serious jeopardy.
Pioli now takes his team to the capital, where he meets his old club, having been victorious in both of his last duels with the Aquile and knowing that Milan's stellar away form has remained unaffected by their recent slump in fortunes.
As the Rossoneri could become the first team to win 14 of their first 16 games on the road in a single Serie A season on Monday, their ease outside of San Siro may prove vital in setting that record and keeping pace with the fast-closing pack just behind.
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Lazio will be in search of their own piece of history at Stadio Olimpico, as they seek a 10th consecutive home victory in Serie A - a streak only previously achieved by the club in 1937 and then 1974.
After an incredible week in which the Biancocelesti contrived to both win 5-3 and lose 5-2, they sit just inside the top six places that guarantee at least a Europa League spot for next term.
However, missing out in an incident-packed head-to-head for fifth place at Napoli last week - despite a belated fightback through goals from Ciro Immobile and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic - leaves Lazio in a precarious position, as rivals Roma are still on their coat-tails.
Simone Inzaghi's side had beaten his younger brother's Benevento in their previous outing, before their rude awakening in Naples on Thursday. While Inzaghi senior was absent from the touchline on both occasions as he self-isolated with COVID-19, his players will have been made all too aware that further defensive blunders will not be tolerated by the demanding tactician, as he plots a course back to Europe.
Still well short of the tally currently boasted by Cristiano Ronaldo in the Capocannoniere rankings, top scorer Immobile has played his part in helping Lazio make up ground lost in the early part of the season by winning five consecutive games before their thumping at the Maradona. The reigning penalty-box king would now dearly love to add to his two goals in as many recent games against the Rossoneri - to boost both his own cause and that of his team.
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Team News
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After missing out through suspension and injury last week, Zlatan Ibrahimovic - who recently signed a one-year contract extension that will keep him at the club beyond his 40th birthday - continues to be absent from the Milan squad on Monday. January signing Mario Mandzukic is expected to replace Rafael Leao as lone frontman.
Midfielder Ismael Bennacer has been suffering with an ankle problem but is poised to feature for Stefano Pioli's side, with Soualiho Meite losing his place in the engine room. Full-back Theo Hernandez has also been passed fit following assessments and should start.
Lazio manager Simone Inzaghi, who has recovered from a brush with COVID-19 and will be back on the hosts' bench, will be without South American pair Gonzalo Escalante and Luiz Felipe, who are both injured, but otherwise has few concerns to contend with.
Though Luis Alberto (ankle) and star man Ciro Immobile (calf) picked up knocks against Napoli, both should be fine to start for the Aquile.
Despite conceding eight times in the course of two games, the back three should remain unchanged, as Adam Marusic continues in an unfamiliar central role, while Mohamed Fares will make way for Senad Lulic on the flank.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Reina; Marusic, Acerbi, Radu; Lazzari, Milinkovic-Savic, Leiva, Alberto, Lulic; Correa, Immobile
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez; Kessie, Bennacer; Saelemaekers, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Mandzukic
We say: Lazio 1-1 AC Milan
As Lazio have been flawless on home turf in recent months, while Milan continue to rack up point after point on their travels, inevitably a draw is the most probable outcome at the Olimpico.
Though the home side have regained their penalty-box potency, the Rossoneri - who have let in only 14 goals on the road all season - are now scrapping for their immediate future, after a week in which the seven-time European Cup winners saw their glittering reputation of days past slightly tarnished.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 34.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
