Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 40.78%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Latvia win was 1-0 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Armenia would win this match.