La Liga Gameweek 8
Oct 10, 2026 1.00pm
Estadio de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Rayo Vallecano

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 1.00pm
Osasuna 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano
Goals scored
11
Top scorer
Sergio Camello

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Last game
Sep 19, 2026 3.15pm
Athletic Bilbao 0 - 0 Alaves
Goals scored
7
Top scorer
Robert Navarro

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Athletic Bilbao has a probability of 35.65% and a draw has a probability of 27.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (5.97%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win is 0-1 (9.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.76%).

Result

Rayo Vallecano 37.13% ▼ (-0.09)
Draw 27.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Athletic Bilbao 35.65% ▲ (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.76% ▲ (+0.19)

Goals

Over 1.5 73.83% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 1.5 26.17% ▲ (+0.09)
Over 2.5 49.28% ▼ (-0.12)
Under 2.5 50.72% ▲ (+0.12)
Over 3.5 27.12% ▲ (+0.43)
Under 3.5 72.88% ▼ (-0.43)
Over 4.5 14.66% ▲ (+0.22)
Under 4.5 85.34% ▼ (-0.21)

First Half Winner

Rayo Vallecano 29.91% ▲ (+0.29)
Draw 42.87% ▼ (-0.86)
Athletic Bilbao 27.21% ▲ (+0.57)

Team To Score First

Rayo Vallecano 46.82% ▼ (-0.18)
No Goal 7.61% ▼ (-0.07)
Athletic Bilbao 45.57% ▲ (+0.25)

Corners

Over 8 64.77% ▼ (-2.19)
Equal 8 10.8%
Under 8 24.43% ▲ (+2.20)
Over 9 53.14% ▼ (-1.90)
Equal 9 11.63% ▼ (-0.30)
Under 9 35.23% ▲ (+2.19)
Over 10.5 41.68% ▼ (-1.40)
Under 10.5 58.31% ▲ (+1.40)

Rayo Vallecano Goals

Over 1.5 37.19% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 62.81% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 14.75% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 85.25% ▲ (+0.05)
Over 3.5 4.82% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.18% ▲ (+0.02)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5 69.66% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 0.5 30.34% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 1.5 35.51% ▲ (+0.27)
Under 1.5 64.49% ▼ (-0.28)
Over 2.5 13.66% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 2.5 86.34% ▼ (-0.15)
Over 3.5 4.15% ▲ (+0.12)
Under 3.5 95.85% ▼ (-0.11)

Score analysis

Rayo Vallecano 37.13%
Draw 27.22%
Athletic Bilbao 35.66%
Rayo Vallecano
1-0 @ 9.19% ▲ (+0.08)
2-1 @ 8.51% ▼ (-0.09)
2-0 @ 5.97% ▲ (+0.10)
3-1 @ 3.5% ▼ (-0.03)
3-0 @ 2.95% ▼ (-0.15)
3-2 @ 2.38% ▲ (+0.05)
Other @ 4.63% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 37.13%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.76% ▼ (-0.15)
0-0 @ 7.61% ▼ (-0.07)
2-2 @ 5.56% ▲ (+0.10)
3-3 @ 1.1% ▲ (+0.10)
Other @ 0.19% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 27.22%
Athletic Bilbao
0-1 @ 9.38% ▲ (+0.07)
1-2 @ 8.1% ▼ (-0.09)
0-2 @ 5.81% ▲ (+0.06)
1-3 @ 3.39% ▲ (+0.12)
0-3 @ 2.62% ▼ (-0.18)
2-3 @ 2.4% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 3.96% ▲ (+0.07)
Total : 35.66%

Head to Head

La Liga
Feb 28, 2026 1.00pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Jorge de Frutos 35' goal
  • Óscar Valentín 61' yellowcard
  • Unai López 61' yellowcard
  • Fran Pérez 61' yellowcard
  • Pedro Díaz 69' yellowcard
  • Alexandre Zurawski 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Álex Berenguer 46'
  • goal Iñaki Williams 47'
  • yellowcard Alejandro Rego 59'
  • yellowcard Andoni Gorosabel 73'
  • yellowcard Selton Sánchez 86'
  • yellowcard Mikel Vesga 86'
La Liga
Aug 25, 2025 6.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
La Liga Gameweek 31
Apr 13, 2025 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 0 1
FT San Mames Barria
  • Alvaro Djalo 12' yellowcard
  • Daniel Vivian 36' yellowcard
  • Oihan Sancet 58' goal
  • Nico Williams 80' goal
  • Adama Boiro Boiro 84' yellowcard
  • Inaki Williams 87' yellowcard
  • Oihan Sancet 90'+4' goal
  • goal Pathe Ciss 37'
  • yellowcard Pedro Diaz 50'
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 57'
  • yellowcard Unai Lopez 75'
La Liga Gameweek 15
Dec 1, 2024 5.30pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Randy Nteka 14' goal
  • Pathe Ciss 69' yellowcard
  • Gerard Gumbau 76' yellowcard
  • Alvaro Garcia 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Oihan Sancet 65'
  • goal Oihan Sancet 78'
La Liga Gameweek 38
May 25, 2024 5.30pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio de Vallecas
  • Miguel Crespo 84' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta 44'
  • goal Nico Williams 67'
La Liga Gameweek 15
Dec 2, 2023 3.15pm
4
0
HT : 1 0
FT San Mames Barria
  • Daniel Vivian 6' yellowcard
  • Gorka Guruzeta 23' goal
  • Alfonso Espino 47' goal
  • Inaki Williams 64' goal
  • Nico Williams 68' goal
  • yellowcard Alfonso Espino 32'
  • yellowcard Radamel Falcao 87'