Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.46%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.