FC Koln and Augsburg will both be aiming to kick off 2021 with a win when the two Bundesliga sides lock horns at the RheinEnergieStadion on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts managed to advance in the DFB-Pokal before Christmas with a 1-0 win over VfL Osnabruck, whereas Augsburg were knocked out of the competition at the hands of RB Leipzig.
Match preview
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Despite Koln's precarious position near the foot of the Bundesliga table, they managed to improve their results in the back end of 2020 and can look ahead to the New Year with a slight sense of optimism.
Markus Gisdol's side have only suffered defeat in one of their last six matches in all competitions after a woeful start to the campaign, and this weekend's hosts managed to hold RB Leipzig to a goalless stalemate in their final league outing of 2020.
However, the Billy Goats' struggles on their own patch are well-documented and Gisdol has witnessed both of his team's triumphs this season come on the road - with Borussia Dortmund and Mainz falling to Koln in recent weeks.
Since the start of the campaign, Koln have lost five of their seven Bundesliga encounters at the RheinEnergieStadion, although a 1-0 DFB-Pokal victory over second-tier side VfL Osnabruck just before Christmas ended their home hoodoo, with Anthony Modeste netting the only goal in that game.
It is not possible for the hosts to drop into the bottom two just yet, but defeat to Augsburg opens the door for Arminia Bielefeld to climb out of the relegation playoff spot in the first weekend of the New Year.
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While Koln were able to prevent Leipzig's rampant attack from finding the back of the net in December, Augsburg could not replicate such a feat as their DFB-Pokal journey ended in the second round.
Willi Orban, Yussuf Poulsen and Angelino all notched up goals as Leipzig cruised to a 3-0 win over Augsburg, who are also edging closer to danger after a spate of poor results in the German top flight.
Heiko Herrlich's men were put to the sword by Eintracht Frankfurt on their own turf just before Christmas and have only managed to triumph over newly-promoted Arminia since Halloween - a run which also includes defeats to Hertha Berlin and Hoffenheim as well as a draw with basement side Schalke.
Despite their underwhelming spell of form, Augsburg are still closer to the top six than the relegation zone and could potentially find themselves back in the top half with a win if other results go their way this weekend.
The last three meetings between Koln and Augsburg have ended with both sides chalking up one goal apiece, but the Billy Goats are winless against their opponents since the 2011-12 campaign.
FC Koln Bundesliga form: LWDWLD
FC Koln form (all competitions): WDWLDW
Augsburg Bundesliga form: DDLDWL
Augsburg form (all competitions): DLDWLL
Team News
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Koln winger Ismail Jakobs started in the cup victory over Osnabruck on December 22, but he has since come down with illness and is not expected to feature this weekend.
Jan Thielmann could be welcomed back to the starting lineup with open arms in Jakobs's absence, but Sebastian Andersson and Florian Kainz are still in the treatment room.
Rafael Czichos has returned to training and is an option for change in Koln's defence, but it is difficult to see any member of the back four who kept Leipzig at bay dropping out of the team.
As for Augsburg, right-back Raphael Framberger is definitely out with a muscular problem, so Robert Gumny will make just his fifth start of the Bundesliga campaign.
Striker Alfred Finnbogason missed out the DFB-Pokal defeat to Leipzig but has not been ruled out of this clash, so Herrlich could partner him with Florian Niederlechner if he recovers in time.
Andre Hahn is not thought to be too far away from a return after recovering from coronavirus, but Fredrik Jensen, Jan Moravek and Noah-Joel Sarenren-Bazee all remain sidelined.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Horn; Wolf, Mere, Bornauw, Katterbach; Skhiri, Rexhbecaj, Ozcan; Drexler, Modeste, Thielmann
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Uduokhai, Gouweleeuw; Iago; Caligiuri, Khedira, Gruezo, Vargas; Niederlechner, Gregoritsch
We say: FC Koln 1-1 Augsburg
Both of these teams will be hoping for a fresh start in 2021 after struggling for results in the early stages of the campaign. Koln will view this game as a perfect opportunity to finally claim a league win on home soil, but Augsburg know that the Billy Goats are vulnerable on their own turf. These two sides have played out three 1-1 draws in succession, and we expect that to become four at the RheinEnergieStadion this weekend.
Top betting tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Augsburg win with a probability of 38.31%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 35.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Augsburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (6.55%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-0 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Augsburg in this match.
