Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 48.91%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6%) and 1-0 (5.92%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-2 (6.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that NEC would win this match.