Champions Juventus await the challenge of perhaps their favourite opposition as they clash with neighbours Torino in Saturday's Derby della Mole.
Once again, the Bianconeri failed to dispose of a Serie A minnow last week - being held to a draw by upstarts Benevento - while Torino's torrid start to the campaign continues, with a point against Sampdoria on Monday failing to lift them out of the bottom three.
Match preview
© Reuters
Dominant Juventus have only lost one of their last 28 Serie A matches against their city rivals, winning 21, with that last defeat coming as far back as April 2015. In fact, the last time the Old Lady lost a top-flight game at home to the Granata was remarkably 25 years ago.
Even if the outcome remains in the balance late on this weekend, Juventus should be entirely confident of finding a late winner, as in each of the last six home league derbies Juve have always scored at least one goal from the 80th minute onward.
Under Andrea Pirlo - and predecessor Maurizio Sarri - the once definitive ruthless steak which characterised their game on the domestic scene has tangibly diminished though.
Juventus have drawn five games out of nine in the current campaign, with the last time they drew at least six of their first 10 Serie A matches being as long ago as the 1965-66 season.
That leaves them fourth in the table ahead of the derby, but with European progress fully assured in the wake of a comprehensive Champions League win over Dynamo Kiev in midweek, Pirlo's focus will be laser-focused on stringing together a run of Serie A wins ahead of the brief winter break.
On Wednesday, the rookie coach's 3-5-2 setup brought the best out of opening goalscorer Federico Chiesa, while forward duo Alvaro Morata and Cristiano Ronaldo were both on target too. Therefore, it will be interesting to see if he persists with that formation or shifts back to a four-man defence for Saturday's big game.
© Reuters
With a paltry six points in nine games, Torino have equalled their worst Serie A start in the history of the three-points-per-win era. In something of a doom-laden portent, that year they also lost the next game - 4-0 to Juventus.
All hopes for this derby will again be invested in Andrea Belotti, who with 99 Granata goals to his name is within a hair's breadth of his 100th strike for the club in all competitions.
Since he joined Torino in 2015-16, only three Serie A stars have reached this significant milestone with a single club - Ciro Immobile with Lazio, Edin Dzeko with Roma and Dries Mertens at Napoli.
Belotti played through a knee niggle in Monday evening's game and still managed to register his seventh goal of the season. His partnership with the well-travelled Simone Zaza often bears fruit for the Granata and under-pressure boss Marco Giampaolo will rely heavily upon the pair in his 3-5-2 formation.
The Derby della Mole dates back over 100 years and, in its most recent stagings, only the Bianconeri seem to have been contesting a one-horse race. A shock of seismic proportions would have to occur if Torino are to claim an improbable win this week - perhaps the only result which could help save Giampaolo's job.
Juventus Serie A form: DDWDWD
Juventus form (all competitions): WDWWDW
Torino Serie A form: DLWDLD
Torino form (all competitions): LWDLWD
Team News
© Reuters
Giampaolo has Sasa Lukic, Amer Gojak, Mergim Vojvoda and midfielder Daniele Baselli out of action, though star striker Andrea Belotti is fit to start for Torino after a minor knee issue. Simone Zaza will join him up front, with Simone Verdi in reserve.
In-form Alvaro Morata misses out for Juventus, as the Spanish striker is suspended after his red card last weekend, therefore Paulo Dybala is set to replace him alongside Cristiano Ronaldo in a possible 4-4-2 setup.
Participants of many a derby past, Giorgio Chiellini and Gianluigi Buffon are still struggling with muscle injuries, so Matthijs de Ligt - recently back from shoulder surgery - is expected to continue in Chiellini's absence, particularly in light of a new injury picked up by fellow centre-back Merih Demiral.
Dejan Kulusevski and Aaron Ramsey will contest a spot in the Juve midfield, with Federico Chiesa in line to keep his place out wide.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Cuadrado, Bonucci, De Ligt, Danilo; Chiesa, Rabiot, Arthur, Kulusevski; Dybala, Ronaldo
Torino possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Bremer, Lyanco, Rodriguez; Singo, Meite, Rincon, Linetty, Ansaldi; Zaza, Belotti
We say: Juventus 2-0 Torino
Despite a recent uplift in performances - if not particularly results - Torino are ripe for the picking by their dominant city rivals this week.
Juve must overcome their propensity for underwhelming draws against the league's lesser lights if they are to keep tabs on AC Milan's growing lead at the top.
Pirlo's men will want to close the gap before the upcoming winter break and taking maximum points from their neighbours is all but essential.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 78.07%. A draw had a probability of 13.8% and a win for Torino had a probability of 8.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.17%) and 2-1 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.44%), while for a Torino win it was 1-2 (2.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Juventus would win this match.
