Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 42.72%. A win for Kyoto Sanga had a probability of 32.19% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (6.99%). The likeliest Kyoto Sanga win was 1-0 (7.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.