Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Fagiano Okayama had a probability of 32.99% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Fagiano Okayama win was 0-1 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.