Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashiwa Reysol win with a probability of 37.42%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 35.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashiwa Reysol win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.57%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 0-1 (9.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashiwa Reysol would win this match.