Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Shimizu S-Pulse had a probability of 29.44% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Shimizu S-Pulse win was 0-1 (8.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Kashima Antlers in this match.