Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 36.94%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.