J1 League | Gameweek 21
Jun 30, 2024 at 10am UK
Yanmar Stadium Nagai

Cerezo
2 - 1
Nagoya Grampus

Ceara (26'), Fernandes (65')
Watanabe (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Kubo (76')
Mikuni (30'), Shiihashi (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's J1 League clash between Cerezo Osaka and Nagoya Grampus, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Cerezo Osaka

All competitions
Last Game: Cerezo 1-0 Sagan Tosu
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

Nagoya Grampus

All competitions
Last Game: Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Urawa
Wednesday, June 26 at 11am in J1 League

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nagoya Grampus win with a probability of 36.94%. A win for Cerezo Osaka had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nagoya Grampus win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.98%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.

Result
Cerezo OsakaDrawNagoya Grampus
35.6% (-0.219 -0.22)27.46% (0.114 0.11)36.94% (0.11 0.11)
Both teams to score 49.43% (-0.359 -0.36)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.78% (-0.44600000000001 -0.45)56.22% (0.449 0.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.73% (-0.36 -0.36)77.27% (0.364 0.36)
Cerezo Osaka Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.9% (-0.357 -0.36)30.1% (0.36 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.75% (-0.434 -0.43)66.24% (0.43599999999999 0.44)
Nagoya Grampus Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.72% (-0.151 -0.15)29.28% (0.153 0.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.76% (-0.187 -0.19)65.24% (0.19 0.19)
Score Analysis
    Cerezo Osaka 35.6%
    Nagoya Grampus 36.94%
    Draw 27.46%
Cerezo OsakaDrawNagoya Grampus
1-0 @ 10.58% (0.08 0.08)
2-1 @ 7.8% (-0.055 -0.05)
2-0 @ 6.35% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-1 @ 3.12% (-0.053 -0.05)
3-0 @ 2.54% (-0.033 -0.03)
3-2 @ 1.92% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-1 @ 0.94% (-0.025 -0.02)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 35.6%
1-1 @ 12.99% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 8.81% (0.151 0.15)
2-2 @ 4.79% (-0.054 -0.05)
Other @ 0.86%
Total : 27.46%
0-1 @ 10.82% (0.14 0.14)
1-2 @ 7.98% (-0.010000000000001 -0.01)
0-2 @ 6.65% (0.058000000000001 0.06)
1-3 @ 3.27% (-0.018 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.72% (0.012 0.01)
2-3 @ 1.96% (-0.031 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1% (-0.01 -0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 36.94%

How you voted: Cerezo vs Nagoya Grampus

Cerezo Osaka
57.1%
Draw
28.6%
Nagoya Grampus
14.3%
28
Head to Head
Apr 21, 2024 7am
Gameweek 9
Nagoya Grampus
2-1
Cerezo
Mikuni (65'), Nagai (82')
Yoshida (23'), Mikuni (62'), Chang-Rae (87'), Ha (87'), Morishima (90+3')
Mikuni (67')
Capixaba (78')
Aug 26, 2023 11.30am
Gameweek 25
Cerezo
3-1
Nagoya Grampus
Uejo (9', 71'), Kitano (88')
Morishita (12')
Jun 3, 2023 8am
Gameweek 16
Nagoya Grampus
3-1
Cerezo
Izumi (21'), Maruyama (31'), Mateus (43')
Capixaba (4')
Nov 5, 2022 5am
Gameweek 34
Cerezo
0-1
Nagoya Grampus
May 14, 2022 6am
Gameweek 13
Nagoya Grampus
1-0
Cerezo
Sento (6')