Istanbul Basaksehir host RB Leipzig in the Champions League on Wednesday, with the Turkish side needing to win to remain in the competition.
Leipzig, meanwhile, can move level on points with Manchester United at the top of Group H with a victory ahead of their final matchday showdown with the Red Devils.
Match preview
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After beating Man Utd 2-1 at home earlier in the month, Okan Burak's side were soundly beaten 4-1 in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford last week.
Bruno Fernandes's brace and Marcus Rashford's penalty had given Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side a commanding 3-0 lead heading into the break, with the lively Deniz Turuc giving the Turkish side hope before Daniel James's last minute goal removed any doubt from the occasion.
Due to head-to-head rules separating sides level on points, Basaksehir must now win their final two matches against Leipzig and Paris Saint-Germain in order to have a realistic chance of progressing to the knockout stages.
In truth, though, the Champions League debutants have probably already performed above expectations in one of the tougher Champions League groups by beating Man Utd and being reasonably competitive in all four matches so far.
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Leipzig, meanwhile, were dealt a huge blow by the 1-0 defeat to PSG last time out, leaving them third in the group with only two matches remaining.
Having beaten the Parisians 2-1 in the reverse fixture, Julian Nagelsmann's side could not break their unusually defensive opposition down despite retaining 62% possession of the ball.
Anything less than a win in Istanbul on Wednesday will make it incredibly difficult for Leipzig to progress to the knockout stages for a second successive season.
With PSG and Man Utd facing each other in the other match in the group, at least one of their two rivals in Group H are guaranteed to pick up points and move away from them otherwise.
Istanbul Basaksehir Champions League form: LLWL
Istanbul Basaksehir form (all competitions): WWLLLD
RB Leipzig Champions League form: WLWL
RB Leipzig form (all competitions): LWWDLW
Team News
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The hosts are without Mehmet Topal (unknown), Enzo Crivelli (hamstring), Danijel Aleksic (coronavirus) and Junior Caicera (Achilles) for the visit of Leipzig.
Burak is likely to field the same XI which performed well despite defeat at Old Trafford, with former Premier League stars Martin Skrtel, Rafael Da Silva, Nacer Chadli and Demba Ba all in line to start.
Nagelsmann, meanwhile, is missing Hwang Hee-Chan (coronavirus), Lukas Klostermann (knee), Fabrice Hartmann (knee), Konrad Laimer (ankle) and Benjamin Henrichs (knee) for the trip to Istanbul.
The 33-year-old rested the likes of Yussuf Poulsen, Emil Forsberg, Marcel Sabitzer and Christopher Nkunku from the start in the weekend's 2-1 win over Arminia Bielefeld, so they are likely to come into the side for a must-win match.
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Gunok; Rafael, Skrtel, Epureanu, Bolingoli-Mbombo; Visca, Kahveci, Ozcan, Turuc, Chadli; Ba
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Gulasci; Konate, Upamecano, Halstenberg; Nkunku, Sabitzer, Haidara, Angelino; Olmo, Forsberg; Poulsen
We say: Istanbul Basaksehir 1-2 RB Leipzig
We can envisage a closely fought match with both teams needing to win to have a realistic chance of progressing to the knockout stages.
However, Nagelsmann's side possess a little more quality, with most of their key players raring to go having not played the full 90 minutes on Saturday.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 43.75%. A win for RB Leipzig had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest RB Leipzig win was 0-1 (8.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
