Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 74.1%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Peru had a probability of 7.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (16.79%) and 0-3 (11.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.59%) , while for a Peru win it was 1-0 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.