Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 46.83%. A win for Peru had a probability of 26.94% and a draw had a probability of 26.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.74%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Peru win was 1-0 (8.77%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.