Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bangladesh win with a probability of 37.25%. A win for Bhutan had a probability of 37.21% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bangladesh win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.31%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Bhutan win was 1-0 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.