We said: Azerbaijan 1-2 Belarus
Azerbaijan are a difficult team to back at the moment due to their struggles, and Belarus are a talented outfit with a lot of dangerous players in the final third of the field - it should be tight in terms of the scoreline, but we are expecting Belarus to emerge victorious.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 37.14%. A win for Belarus had a probability of 34.88% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.89%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Belarus win was 0-1 (10.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Belarus would win this match.