Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 61.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Belarus had a probability of 14.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.23%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.8%), while for a Belarus win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.