Athletico Paranaense have an opportunity to catch Internacional in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A table when they head to Estadio Jose Pinheiro Borda to face them on Saturday.
Colorado came up empty-handed on Wednesday due to a late own goal, falling 2-1 to Juventude, while El Paranaense moved to within three points of them with a 2-1 win over Ceara.
Match preview
© Reuters
The joy of beating their most bitter rivals, Gremio, was short-lived, as the team from Porto Alegre were narrowly defeated earlier this week in a match that could have gone either way.
It is perhaps no big surprise to see the players suffer a bit of an emotional let-down given what it means for this club to beat their biggest adversaries, but with seven games remaining, Diego Aguirre will have to get his side back on track as they still have plenty to play for this season.
After missing out on the league title by a single point in 2020, this team are learning how difficult it can be to remain near the top as they are well off the pace set by Atletico Mineiro, currently trailing them by 14 points.
With only seven games remaining, it appears that their title drought will continue for another year, but there is still a chance for them to capture a place in the Copa Libertadores in 2022.
They are currently three points behind Corinthians for a qualifying spot in that tournament, and with four of their remaining matches at home, Clube do Povo should be confident that they can make up some ground in the standings, currently unbeaten in 10 successive Serie A fixtures at their home stadium of Porto Alegre.
Their form domestically down the stretch of the 2020 campaign is what ultimately cost them their first Serie A title since 1979, and with the season winding down, Colorado know that winning only one of their final five games as they did a year ago will probably not be enough to make it into the Libertadores.
© Reuters
Athletico have been riding high throughout November, now unbeaten in three successive league encounters, and sitting just a point behind Fluminense for eighth in the table.
They are scoring goals, winning at home and on the road, and climbing their way up the table, so Alberto Valentim cannot complain about how his side have been performing lately.
It is not as though they are facing weak opponents either, as they had to work hard and remain focused and disciplined to come back from 2-0 down to draw Flamengo, following that up with victories over Bragantino 2-0 and Ceara 2-1.
Their current form is a good sign for this group heading into the final of the Copa Sudamericana next Saturday, November 20, against Bragantino.
El Paranaense have not always had a ton of quality scoring opportunities, but when they do, they have been able to bury them with multiple goals in their previous three encounters.
If there is an area that has been a trouble spot in their technical play of late, it could be their pass accuracy, as they have been below 80% in their previous three matches in that department.
- L
- D
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Patrick missed their last match due to a red card suspension, while Rodrigo Moledo will not be coming back anytime soon, having suffered a cruciate ligament rupture at the start of the year and Bruno Mendez is still recovering from a hamstring injury that he picked up in October.
Matheus Cadorini, who was called up from the reserve team for their midweek encounter, scored the only goal in their defeat to Juve thanks to an excellent play from Paulo Victor, who spotted the opposition a 2-0 lead minutes earlier with an own goal.
Edenilson scored the only goal in their first meeting with Paranaense back in July, which ended in a 2-1 loss for Internacional, as the 31-year-old who grew up in Porto Alegre has scored nine times this season, putting him in second on the team just two back of Yuri Alberto.
Matheus Babi is still recovering from his cruciate ligament surgery, so he will not be available for this match on Saturday, nor will Renato Kayzer, who picked up another yellow card for Furacao and will be suspended for this encounter.
Goals late in the first half from David Terans and Vitinho back in July helped Athletico to a 2-1 win over Internacional, as Terans has been spectacular since joining this team, leading them with seven assists in the league and five goals, which is second only to Kayzer.
On Wednesday, Valentim started Nicolas Hernandez at the back instead of Ze Ivaldo, while Terans and Kayzer began the match up front, replacing Leo Cittadini and Guilherme Bissoli.
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Lomba; Victor, Cuesta, Mendez, Heitor; Dourado, Johnny; Palacios, Mauricio, Edenilson; Alberto
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Henrique, Heleno, Azevedo; Marcinho, Erick, Christian, Juninho; Nikao, Bissoli, Terans
We say: Internacional 2-2 Athletico Paranaense
El Paranaense have never beaten Internacional away from home, but this team have worked very hard to get where they are, and at the moment they are finishing their chances.
Internacional have not lost a home fixture since July 7, and they have been clinical in front of goal at home, so expect to see a hard-fought match for both of these sides who have a lot of determination in them to come back in the late stages to earn results.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Internacional win with a probability of 55.81%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 18.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Internacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (7.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Internacional would win this match.
