Serie A leaders Inter Milan will seek to start 2022 in the same manner as last year ended, as they welcome gloriously inconsistent Lazio to San Siro on Sunday.
Following a false start in midweek, when their opening game of the season's second half was cancelled at short notice, the Nerazzurri aim to extend a seven-match winning streak at the expense of coach Simone Inzaghi's former club.
Match preview
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Inter's return to competitive action ended in curious circumstances on Thursday, at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, as their fixture with virus-stricken Bologna was one of four Serie A games that failed to kick off at all.
The local public health authorities ordered their Emilian counterparts into quarantine following a COVID-19 outbreak in their squad, so the Scudetto holders - at least until Bologna's inevitable appeal - should initially pick up a 3-0 walkover win.
While that decision has yet to be taken by the chaotic leadership of Calcio's top flight, Inter will still host their next opponents having won six straight Serie A matches without conceding a goal for the first time in their history.
Topping the table by a point from city rivals Milan, with a game in hand, only once have the Nerazzurri enjoyed a longer streak without conceding - back in 1971. With another clean sheet on Sunday, Simone Inzaghi's current crop could match that record run of seven, and they will step out at San Siro expecting to extend their second-best unbeaten home run since the beginning of the 1990s.
Under the guidance of both former coach Antonio Conte and new boss Inzaghi - who will welcome some familiar faces to Milan, having spent several years in the Lazio dugout after a successful playing spell with the club - Inter are unbeaten in their last 26 league games on home turf.
Indeed, during the past 12 months, they not only reclaimed the title after a decade-long drought, but also became the first side to have netted more than 100 Serie A goals in a calendar year since 1950 - winning a total of 19 home games in Serie A throughout 2021.
Improving on Conte's formula by adding some shrewd summer signings to his squad, Inzaghi has also steered Inter to seven away victories from their first 10 attempts this term, but they were beaten when last faced by Lazio, who - despite Ivan Perisic's opening goal - ran out 3-1 winners at Stadio Olimpico last October.
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They may be separated from the league leaders by a gulf of 14 points and seven places in the standings, but eighth-placed Lazio have lost only two of their last six games against Inter, including that late comeback to win in the autumn.
However, the Aquile have suffered six defeats in their last eight games at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza - versus either Inter or Milan - and they arrive in the second city on this occasion having to face the league's fiercest attack with a serious set of deficiencies in their defence.
Maurizio Sarri's team are the first Lazio side to have conceded as many as 37 goals after 20 games in a Serie A season for the first time since 1960-61, but the former Napoli and Juventus coach has retained a remarkable personal streak against this week's hosts for several years.
Unbeaten in his last seven league matches against Inter - indeed, emerging on top on five occasions - Sarri clearly relishes pitting his wits against the Nerazzurri, but will surely feel some trepidation given his side's lack of stability since he took charge in the summer.
The latest in a long line of unpredictable affairs saw Lazio share six goals with surprise package Empoli on Thursday, as an extraordinary 3-3 thriller ended with a point desperately salvaged, after the Serie B champions had raced into a 2-0 lead before even 10 minutes had been played.
Demonstrating great character to twice come back from behind, the Biancocelesti may have thought all hope was lost when Ciro Immobile missed a penalty late on, before a last-gasp equaliser from in-demand midfielder Sergej Milinkovic-Savic saved the day.
While such drama provided plenty of entertainment for neutrals and fans alike, Lazio - whose record on the road is far worse than in Rome - cannot afford to take such a cavalier attitude when they enter the lion's den on Sunday, or they will surely be slayed by a ruthless Inter side.
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Team News
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Simone Inzaghi has had his attacking options bolstered by the return of joint-top scorer Edin Dzeko this weekend, as the Bosnian striker has now recovered from a recent COVID-19 infection and will be available to feature at some stage.
With next week's Supercoppa Italiana against Juventus in mind, the ex-Roma forward may start on the bench, as former Lazio man Joaquin Correa instead joins his Argentinian compatriot Lautaro Martinez up front. Alexis Sanchez provides another option if required.
Though unlikely to play in any case, reserve goalkeeper Alex Cordaz is still unavailable to Inzaghi as he continues to self-isolate, while the suspension of Hakan Calhanoglu will necessitate a change from the coach's preferred midfield trio. Roberto Gagliardini, Arturo Vidal and Matias Vecino will therefore contest one vacant spot in the hosts' engine room.
Though Jean-Louis Akpa Akpro will be away at the Africa Cup of Nations for at least the next fortnight, Lazio have no other concerns regarding availability.
Therefore, leading goalscorer Ciro Immobile - on 14 so far in the hotly-contested Capocannoniere race - will aim to become only the third player to score at least 15 times in each of the last six seasons throughout the top five European Leagues, following in the footsteps of Mohamed Salah and Robert Lewandowski.
Meanwhile, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic will start in a midfield three, having previously netted five Serie A goals versus Inter, and seeks to continue a streak of scoring in each of his last four appearances against the Nerazzurri in the top flight.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Vidal, Perisic; Correa, Martinez
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Marusic, Felipe, Radu, Hysaj; Milinkovic-Savic, Cataldi, Basic; Pedro, Immobile, Anderson
We say: Inter Milan 3-1 Lazio
Free-scoring Inter are strong favourites to belatedly start 2022 in familiar style, as withstanding their attacking width and midfield guile should prove beyond leaky Lazio's capabilities.
Unbeaten in their 11 league fixtures since losing the reverse fixture nearly three months ago, the champions can brush off any early rustiness and continue their positive momentum as if they were never away.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 71.71%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 11.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.05%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (3.46%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
