Preview: Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia - prediction, team news, lineups

Two sides in close proximity at the lower end of the Primeira Liga table meet at Estadio Jose Gomes on Friday as Estrela Amadora host Casa Pia in the opening fixture of matchday 27.

Just one point separates the teams, with the Riboleira club sitting 14th in the standings, while the visitors are immediately below them and two points above the playoff spot, albeit with a game in hand.

Match preview

Estrela battled to stay afloat throughout the 2024-25 Primeira Liga campaign, with a drop-off in the second half dragging them closer to danger, though they eventually finished two points above the playoff spot.

Following a similar path this term, the Tricolores, who picked up around 1.1 points per game between matchday one and 17, have averaged just 0.67 across their last nine matches, with only Nacional (five) collecting fewer points than the Amadorans’ six in that time.

Now on a five-match winless run (D2, L3), Estrela suffered a 2-1 defeat at Rio Ave last weekend, where Rodrigo Pinho’s 65th-minute strike proved only a consolation after they had already fallen two goals behind.

That result means the Tricolores have conceded exactly twice in four of their last five outings, taking their total goals allowed in the league to 45, with only Arouca (55) shipping more among sides outside the relegation zone.

Alongside those defensive struggles, Estrela have also found results hard to come by at home, managing just one win in their last six league matches (D3, L2) there, leaving head coach Joao Nuno Rodrigues Carromeu with plenty to address in the fight for survival.

While the hosts have struggled in the second half of the campaign, Casa Pia have shown slight improvement during the same period, a shift that has followed the arrival of head coach Alvaro Pacheco in January.

Despite losing his first game in charge at Sporting Lisbon on matchday 18, Pacheco has collected 10 points from eight league matches, outperforming his predecessors; Joao Pereira managed eight points from the opening 10 games before Goncalo Brandao took six from seven during his interim spell.

That upturn has helped lift the team out of the relegation zone, though the Geese are without a win in their last three matches (D2, L1), beginning with a 2-0 defeat at Famalicao before draws against Moreirense (1-1) and Estoril Praia (0-0).

Having seen their matchday 26 clash with Braga postponed, Casa Pia come into this encounter well rested and will aim for a positive result, drawing confidence from a win in their most recent visit to Estrela, though Os Gansos were beaten 5-3 in the reverse encounter earlier this season.

While the Geese aim to avoid suffering a second double in this fixture, their recent away form raises concern, with three defeats in their last five trips (D2) and no goals scored in the most recent four of those matches.

Estrela Amadora Primeira Liga form:

Casa Pia Primeira Liga form:

Team News

Estrela will remain without forward Sydney van Hooijdonk and right-back Jefferson Encada, who have both missed recent matches through injury.

Bernardo Schappo is also a doubt after sitting out the last two games, while fellow centre-back Stefan Lekovic could miss a second consecutive outing.

Meanwhile, Casa Pia will be without Kiki Silva as he continues recovery from a knee problem, while Kelian Nsona may miss a sixth straight match.

Lawrence Ofori is also a doubt after missing the last two outings, but centre-back David Sousa returns to contention following a suspension.

Estrela Amadora possible starting lineup:

Ribeiro; Scholze, Patrick, Lekovic, Langa; Jansson, Moreira; Marcus, Stoica, Jovane; Pinho

Casa Pia possible starting lineup:

Sequeira; Sousa, G Silva, Kaly; Larrazabal, Perez, Brito, Conte; Livolant, Cassiano, Osundina

We say: Estrela Amadora 1-1 Casa Pia

Head coach Pacheco holds a favourable record against Estrela from his time with Vitoria de Guimaraes, but his current side do not look convincing enough on the road to take maximum points here.

With the hosts also struggling for consistency and neither side showing enough cutting edge, this contest could see both teams cancel each other out, making a draw the most likely outcome.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.