Ecuadorian side Independiente del Valle will host Brazilian outfit Gremio in the first leg of their third qualifying round tie of the Copa Libertadores at the Estadio de Liga Deportiva Universitaria.
The match will take place at 17:15 local time on Wednesday between two clubs who will be hoping to put themselves in a strong position to reach this year's group stages.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite losing 1-0 to Chilean side Union Espanola in the first leg of their Copa Libertadores second round qualifier, Independiente del Valle responded by thrashing them 6-2 a week later, with a hat-trick from Brian Montenegro helping Renato Paiva's side progress to the next round.
The Negriazules have since extended their unbeaten run to five matches in all competitions and have moved up to third in the Ecuadorian Serie A, one point behind leaders Barcelona SC, who they drew 2-2 against last weekend.
Independiente have never won the league title and finishing as runners-up in 2013 has been their best performance to date. Even though success domestically is high on their priority list, qualifying for the group stages of the Copa Libertadores is also something they are keen to accomplish.
The Negriazules, who won the Copa Sudamericana in 2019, have never won the Copa Libertadores before but did reach the final in 2016, losing to Colombian outfit Atletico Nacional. This was also the last time they competed in the competition.
© Reuters
Gremio comfortably progressed from the second round after beating Peruvian side Ayacucho 8-2 on aggregate last month.
A commanding 6-1 victory in the first leg, including a hat-trick from Diego Souza, was followed up with a 2-1 away win to send them into the third round.
Gremio, who finished sixth in the Brasileirao Serie A, did not lift any silverware last season, but came close to winning the Copa do Brasil, losing 3-0 on aggregate in the final against Palmeiras.
They were also knocked out of last season's Copa Libertadores at the quarter-final stage, losing to Brazilian rivals Santos.
Gremio, three-time winners of the competition, last lifted the trophy in 2017 and manager Renato Gaucho is desperate to bring the glory days back to Porto Alegre.
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Independiente del Valle pair Jose Hurtado and Anthony Landazuri have rotated in the right-back position, but Landazuri could be chosen to start in midweek.
Striker Montenegro, who has found the net seven times in eight appearances this season, is expected to start up front, with Jhon Sanchez and Christian Ortiz playing on the flanks.
For Gremio, former Real Madrid midfielder Lucas Silva is set to play alongside Matheus Henrique and Darlan in the middle of the pitch, while right winger Alisson could keep his place in the first XI.
Nineteen-year-old forward Ricardinho will be competing with 35-year-old Souza for the number nine spot, but the latter is set to lead the line on Wednesday.
Independiente del Valle possible starting lineup:
Ramirez; Landazuri, Schunke, Pacho, Caicedo; Pellerano, Faravelli, Mera; Sanchez, Montenegro, Ortiz
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Brenno; Vanderson, Rodrigues, Tressoldi, Cortez; Silva, Henrique, Darlan; Alisson, Souza, Aldemir
We say: Independiente del Valle 2-2 Gremio
Independiente del Valle have scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches, while Gremio have found the net in each of their previous nine games in all competitions.
First-leg encounters can often be cagey affairs, however we feel that Wednesday's clash could be an open game and a score draw may be on the cards.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 34.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.68%) and 2-0 (6.41%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
