Hoffenheim take on Freiburg in the opening round of Bundesliga fixtures in 2021, with the hosts able to leapfrog their opponents in the table with a victory.
It will not be easy against Freiburg, though, who ended 2020 in some style with three consecutive victories.
Match preview
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After a testing period, Hoffenheim ended 2020 on a positive note themselves, recording a surprise 2-1 victory at Borussia Monchengladbach.
It was an uphill battle for Sebastian Hoeness's side after Gladbach forward Marcus Thuram won yet another penalty for his side, with Lars Stindl typically converting from the penalty spot. However, Hoffenheim were arguably the better side for much of the game, with Florian Grillitsch uncharacteristically wasteful in front of goal on a few occasions.
Andrej Kramaric looked back to his best having struck the bar from 25 yards with a superb hit with minimal back-lift, before the Croatian scored his first goal since contracting coronavirus in early October with a nicely-controlled volley after fine work by Ihlas Bebou down the right flank.
Hoffenheim's chances of recording a crucial win increased when Thuram was sent off with around 10 minutes remaining for spitting on an opponent. Ryan Sessegnon had already proved a handful for Marco Rose's side all afternoon, with the Tottenham loanee's space down the left flank increasing with his side's advantage. The 20-year-old displayed the goalscoring instincts which saw him remarkably score 15 league goals for Fulham in the 2017-18 campaign, stabbing home from close range at the back post to earn his side an invaluable victory.
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Freiburg boss Christian Streich, meanwhile, will have been delighted with his side's form at the end of the calendar year, having been edging closer to the relegation zone at one point in the campaign.
Two 2-0 wins over potential relegation rivals Arminia Bielefeld and Schalke 04 had eased any concerns, with a comfortable 4-1 victory against Hertha Berlin showing that Freiburg undoubtedly belong at this level.
Vincenzo Grifo continued his fine form of late with a superb diving header from Jonathan Schmid's brilliantly curled cross, although the forward should have doubled his side's lead when cheekily attempting to chip former Freiburg goalkeeper Alexander Schwolow, with the stopper having none of it.
Dodi Lukebakio punished his opposing forward's profligacy when tapping home at the back post from a deflected cross, but Streich's side rallied in response, with goals from Ermedin Demirovic, Manuel Gulde and Nils Petersen wrapping up a comfortable rout which Streich will be hoping his side can build on in the New Year, beginning with the trip to Hoffenheim.
Hoffenheim Bundesliga form: DDWLLW
Hoffenheim form (all competitions): WWLLWL
Freiburg Bundesliga form: LDDWWW
Freiburg form (all competitions): DDWWWL
Team News
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Hoffenheim have had several injury concerns this season, with Ermin Bicakcic ruled out after sustaining a cruciate ligament rupture earlier in the campaign.
The likes of Pavel Kaderabek, Benjamin Hubner, Jacob Bruun Larsen, Kostas Stafylidis and Diadie Samassekou remain doubtful with the knocks which kept them out prior to the winter break.
The visitors are more fortunate on the availability front, with only Mark Flekken and Janik Haberer ruled out of the trip to Hoffenheim.
Streich is suddenly blessed with attacking options, with the likes of Grifo, Petersen, Demirovic, Roland Sallai and Lucas Holer all competing for places in the offensive areas.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Posch, Vogt, Nordtveit, Sessegnon; Geiger, Grillitsch; Bebou, Kramaric, Baumgartner; Belfodil
Freiburg possible starting lineup:
Muller; Lienhart, Schlotterbeck, Gulde; Schmid, Santamaria, Hofler, Gunter; Sallai, Grifo; Holer
We say: Hoffenheim 1-1 Freiburg
With both teams in solid form prior to the winter break, we can envisage an entertaining draw between two sides who will be hoping to finish in the lower reaches of the top half this season.
Kramaric is the sort of player who can take a game away from any opponent, though, so if he truly is back to his best then Hoeness's side could prevail on the day.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 53.37%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 24.87% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.47%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
