Hoffenheim entertain Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Monday with the hosts looking to overtake their opponents in the table with a victory.
Augsburg won this fixture 4-2 in a hugely entertaining affair last season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Since stunning the world by beating Bayern Munich 4-1 in late September, Hoffenheim have failed to win any of their seven ensuing league games, sliding to 13th in the table.
Sebastian Hoeness's side were perhaps fortunate to earn a point at Mainz 05 last weekend, too, surviving to take something from the game despite Dennis Geiger's late red card for a cynical foul from behind.
It had been a hugely entertaining between the two sides, with Jean-Phillipe Mateta's brilliant backheel finding the onrushing Jean-Paul Boetius, who squared for Robert Quaison to fire the hosts into the lead. Hoffenheim rallied, with Christoph Baumgartner's goal-bound strike blocked by Alexander Hack, before Ihlas Bebou converted Ryan Sessegnon's cross to earn his side a point.
Hoffenheim wrapped up qualification to the knockout stages of European competition for the first time in the club's history with a 0-0 draw with Red Star Belgrade in the Europa League, meaning that they can now fully focus on climbing the domestic table. A win against Augsburg would take them above their opponents and potentially into the top half depending on results elsewhere.
© Reuters
Augsburg, meanwhile, have stuttered a little in recent weeks after a superb start to the season saw them take 10 points from their opening six league games.
After earning a deserved point at Borussia Monchengladbach despite being reduced to 10 men, Heiko Herrlich would have been eyeing up three points at home to Freiburg last weekend. However, the visitors were the better side for much of the match, with Nicolas Hofler redeeming a string of individual errors in previous games by superbly crossing for Vincenzo Grifo to open the scoring.
Augsburg may not always be the easiest team on the eye, but they are undoubtedly a very tough side to beat. Despite being far from their best, Herrlich's side dug in, with Ruben Vargas's deflected effort sneaking inside Florian Muller's near post to leave both sides with a creditable point apiece.
A top-half finish would be a very respectable league placing for Augsburg, with a win at Hoffenheim guaranteed to see them remain there for another week at least.
Hoffenheim Bundesliga form: LDLLDD
Hoffenheim form (all competitions): WLDWDD
Augsburg Bundesliga form: LLWLDD
Team News
© Reuters
Hoffenheim remain without long-term absentees Benjamin Hubner (muscle), Kostas Stafylidis (shoulder) and Ermin Bicakcic (knee), while Geiger is suspended after his red card at Mainz last weekend.
Pavel Kaderabek is likely to be unavailable with a calf problem, while Jacob Bruun Larsen is struggling for match fitness.
Jan Moravek will not make the trip to Hoffenheim for Augsburg due to a muscular injury, while Noah Sarenren Bazee's ruptured ligament is likely to keep him on the sidelines for several weeks.
Former West Ham United defender Reece Oxford was an unused subtitute against Freiburg and will be hoping for a start.
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Posch, Kasim, Akpoguma, Sessegnon; Samassekou, Baumgartner, Gacinovic, Grillitsch; Kramaric, Bebou
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Uduokhai, Iago; Khedira, Strobl; Caligiuri, Vargas; Hahn, Niederlechner
We say: Hoffenheim 2-1 Augsburg
We can envisage Hoffenheim finally ending their winless run against an Augsburg side who have dipped from their impressive start to the season.
Hoeness's side are a different beast with Andrej Kramaric in attack, and could have too much attacking fluency for the visitors to handle.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hoffenheim win with a probability of 48.5%. A win for Augsburg had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hoffenheim win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.03%) and 2-0 (6.59%). The likeliest Augsburg win was 1-2 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hoffenheim would win this match.
