Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Asteras Tripolis win with a probability of 41.65%. A win for AEL Larissa had a probability of 30% and a draw had a probability of 28.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Asteras Tripolis win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest AEL Larissa win was 0-1 (10.09%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.