Two teams struggling at the wrong end of the La Liga table will lock horns at Estadio de Mendizorroza on Saturday afternoon, as Alaves welcome Getafe to the Basque Country.
Alaves have picked up 14 points from their 15 league matches this season to sit 17th in the table, while Getafe are 19th, having collected only 11 points from their first 16 games of 2021-22.
Match preview
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Alaves are playing in their sixth straight season at this level of football, but they have finished 16th in each of their last two campaigns, so it is not too much of a surprise to see them currently down in 17th position.
Javier Calleja's side do have a game in hand on each of the bottom three, though, and a victory on Saturday could potentially propel them as high as 13th, which is an indication of how close it is in Spain's top flight.
Alaves managed to progress to the second round of the Copa del Rey courtesy of a 3-0 victory away to Unami on November 30, but they suffered a 2-1 defeat at Granada in their last league match.
El Glorioso looked to have done enough to secure a share of the spoils at Estadio Nuevo Los Carmenes last time out, but Santiago Arias won it for Granada in the 86th minute, with Alaves losing in La Liga for the ninth time this season, which is the joint-worst record alongside Getafe.
Each of the last four La Liga meetings between these two sides has actually finished level, while the last three have ended goalless, so Saturday's contest might not be a classic.
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Getafe are also present in the second round of the Copa del Rey courtesy of a 5-1 victory at Mollerussa, while the capital club will bring a four-match unbeaten run into this weekend's contest.
Indeed, Quique Sanchez Flores's side have collected five points from their last three league matches, beating Cadiz 4-0 before drawing back-to-back games against Mallorca and Athletic Bilbao.
Getafe have actually only lost one of their last six in the league, but a disappointing start to the 2021-22 campaign has left them down in 19th position in the table, picking up just 11 points from 16 matches.
The Deep Blue Ones finished eighth, fifth and eighth in La Liga between 2017 and 2020 but ended last season down in 15th, and the early indications are that they face a battle to secure their status at this level.
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Team News
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Alaves will again be without the services of Ximo Navarro due to a knee injury, but the home side are otherwise in excellent shape, with Ruben Duarte also returning from a suspension.
Head coach Calleja could decide to make just one change to the side that started against Granada, with the returning Duarte coming in for Javi Lopez at left-back.
Joselu should again lead the line with support from Edgar Mendez and Luis Rioja, while Pere Pons should again operate in a midfield area for the home side.
As for Getafe, Sabit Abdulai remains on the sidelines through injury, while Vitolo, Jose Juan Macias and David Timor are all doubts for the contest.
Head coach Flores is again expected to select Enes Unal and Sandro Ramirez as a front two, while Carles Alena should retain his spot in midfield alongside Mauro Arambarri and Nemanja Maksimovic.
Damian Suarez and Mathias Olivera should again operate in the wing-back areas for the visitors, who will not have their manager on the touchline after he was sent off at the end of the clash with Athletic.
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Moya, Loum; Mendez, Pons, Rioja; Joselu
Getafe possible starting lineup:
Soria; Mitrovic, Dakonam, Cuenca; Suarez, Arambarri, Maksimovic, Alena, Olivera; Unal, Sandro
We say: Alaves 1-1 Getafe
Each of the last four league matches between these two sides have finished level, while the points have been shared in five of their last six La Liga contests. Getafe will believe that they have the better team on paper, but the Deep Blue Ones have struggle for wins this season, and we are predicting another draw here.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Getafe win with a probability of 42.56%. A win for Alaves had a probability of 28.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Getafe win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.48%) and 1-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Alaves win was 1-0 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
