Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 43.11%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.58%) and 2-0 (6.45%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-2 (7.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.