Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotor Volgograd win with a probability of 53.98%. A draw had a probability of 26.59% and a win for Volga Ulyanovsk had a probability of 19.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotor Volgograd win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.12%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%) , while for a Volga Ulyanovsk win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.