Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Volga Ulyanovsk win with a probability of 39.02%. A win for KAMAZ had a probability of 31.68% and a draw had a probability of 29.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Volga Ulyanovsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest KAMAZ win was 0-1 (9.81%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.