Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotor Volgograd win with a probability of 44.91%. A win for Surkhon Termez had a probability of 27.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotor Volgograd win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Surkhon Termez win was 0-1 (8.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.